The Impact of Interest Rates Cuts on your Investments

Ruvan J Grobler • July 30, 2024

The Impact of Interest Rates Cuts on your Investments


Interest rate cuts have been on our lips since the middle of 2023, but global inflation has been extremely sticky in the current cycle. Now once again it seems that markets are pricing in cuts from September on. These predicted cuts are largely dependant on what inflation does. SA inflation recently cooled down to 5.1% from 5.2% year on year and the overall economy looks to be slowing down.


 Many are sceptical of the influence that monetary policy has on South Africa. We need intervention that support economic growth, regardless of your opinion on monetary policy. An interest rate cut should promote activity in our economy as capital will once again start moving around searching for opportunities due to lower interest rates. Bonds have an inverse relationship with interest rates while cash has a direct relationship.


 Listed companies will benefit from lower payments on their own debts while consumer spending picks up. This is positive for shareholders as balance sheets improve and shares become attractive. Especially at this time where valuations show great upside for SA equities.


 Interest rate cycles often coincide with the economic cycle. Knowing where we are in the economic cycle is essential in identifying opportunities, it gives us a framework on risk and volatility. Just like countless times before, we have made it to the light at the end of the tunnel.


“History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” – Mark Twain


Ruvan J Grobler RFP™


 


*This does not serve as financial advice.

Should you withdraw your Pension and pay off your home?

By Francois Le Clus • May 28, 2025
Should you withdraw your Pension and pay off your home? It's perfectly normal to ask whether you should use your pension to pay off your home when leaving an employer. This decision involves weighing the tax on the withdrawal, the interest saved on your bond, the future growth of your pension fund, and the contributions needed to catch up. Example: Anne is 40 years old with a pension fund worth R3,500,000. She bought a home 10 years ago for R3,000,000 and bonded it over 20 years at an 11% interest rate, with monthly repayments of R30,965. After 10 years, her outstanding bond is R2,258,225. If she withdraws her pension, she’ll receive R2,408,300 after tax—enough to settle the bond and have some cash left over. By paying off the bond early: She saves R1,467,919 in interest. She frees up R30,965 in monthly cash flow. However, if she keeps the money invested, her pension could grow to R37,921,470 by age 65 (assuming 10% annual growth). To match this value after using her pension to pay off the bond, she’d need to invest R28,580 per month for the next 25 years. That’s R2,385 less than her current bond repayment, so she does save monthly—but only for the next 10 years. After that, she’s committed to investing R28,580/month for 25 years to break even.  Not everyone’s calculation is the same and there are endless amounts of permutations to this calculation, but it’s important to note that you need to consider all of these factors when making these crucial decisions.

GEWOONTES VIR GELUKKIGE AFTREDE

By Riaan Botha • May 28, 2025
Ons ontleed watter gewoontes meewerk om ’n gelukkige aftrede te verseker. Hierdie maand bespreek ons hoe om gesond te lewe tydens aftrede. Mediese kostes verhoog hoe ouer ons word. Die koste van ’n mediese fonds verhoog jaarliks met meer as die inflasiekoers en mediese uitgawes sal in die toekoms ’n al groter persentasie van ons persoonlike uitgawes vereis. Dit is daarom belangrik om so gesond as moontlik te leef. Hier is verskillende stappe wat gevolg kan word om gesond oud te word: Eet gesond. Moenie oorgewig wees nie. Word sterker deur oefeninge te doen wat jou spiermassa behou. Doen jaarliks mediese ondersoeke om te bepaal hoe gesond jy is. Beskerm jou gewrigte en beenstruktuur deur krag- en rek-oefeninge te doen. Verminder rook en alkohol-inname om jou kanse van kanker en ander siektes te beperk. Indien jy ’n familie-geskiedenis het van siektes soos kanker en hart-toestande. moet jy vir gereelde mediese toetse gaan om vroegtydig te bepaal of jy nie die siektes onder lede het nie. Verbeter jou liggaamsbalans deur oefeninge te doen soos om op een been te staan terwyl jy jou tande borsel. Hierdeur verseker jy dat jy nie gereeld jou liggaamsbalans verloor en val nie. Studies het bewys dat dit help om jou fisieke en geestelike gesondheid te behou deur sewe tot agt ure per nag te slaap. Hou jou brein-funksie of kognitiewe vermoë in ’n goeie toestand deur brein-oefeninge te doen, soos om nuwe stokperdjies te beoefen of memoriseringsoefeninge te doen. Volg ’n aktiewe sosiale lewe. Studies het getoon dat mense met ’n aktiewe sosiale lewe minder geheue-probleme ontwikkel. Hulle het ’n verminderde kans om eensaam te voel en depressief te word (Health Connection, Cooper, University Health Care, 9 September 2024).