'Make America Wealthy again': Latest news on US tariffs

Bovest • April 4, 2025

The widely anticipated tariffs were announced last night via executive order, on America’s so-called ‘Liberation Day’ and in discussions with our partners at Morningstar, the following should be noted.

The sweeping announcement is intended to ‘make America wealthy again’ as tariffs effectively tax foreign producers on their imported goods, as a percentage of their value. The US is currently the largest goods importer in the world and is currently running a trade deficit (imports more than it exports). President Trump has said that he will not negotiate, however, if countries are willing to lower their charges on US goods, the White House will reduce the rate in effect.

 

Market impact

 

US Equities have sold off sharply, particularly those reliant on imported goods, as well as foreign companies that have significant exposure to the US market. At the time of writing, the FTSE 100 was down 1.4% to below 8,500, whilst sterling had appreciated to 1.32 against the dollar. Bond prices have broadly risen as investors have sought perceived safer assets.

 

SA equities and bonds responded negatively after markets opened. The All-Share was down around -3,5% by end of-day with the decline being led by Financials at -4.3%, while both Resources and Industrials were down approximately -2.4%. The yield on the SA 10-year government bond spiked sharply to 11.3%, a move of 0.8% off the previous day's close. The rand remains relatively range-bound between R18.60 – R18.80 despite general US dollar weakness against most major currencies.

 

What we know about the Tariffs:

 

The tariffs that were imposed last night are of a reciprocal nature, meaning that countries are free to retaliate with their own tariffs on the US.

 

Below are some of the standout tariffs that Trump has imposed across the globe:

· China 34%

· India 26%

· Japan 24%

· EU 20%

· UK 10%

 

South Africa, which currently applies 60% tariffs on the US, was handed a 30% reciprocal tariff. The effective rate is likely to be lower given that key commodity exports, including gold and platinum, are currently exempted.

 

What we don’t know

 

President Trump has not made it clear whether the tariffs will remain in place indefinitely and whether indeed they will remain at the initial level. There are many factors that could impact their longevity, including legal ramifications and future election implications. It is also yet to be seen how and when other countries will react to these changes.

 

Countries may look to increase their current tariffs on the US or indeed may consider reducing them. Additionally, President Trump has stated that the only way to gain exemption from the tariffs is to set up factories and build products in the U.S., so we await to see how countries and companies react to this proposition.

 

What’s next?

 

While volatility and policy uncertainty will likely persist in the short term, we recommend investors keep a cool head. The challenge is to avoid overreacting to the elevated day-to-day volatility and remain focused on your financial plan.

 

Central Banks have been in a holding pattern in anticipation of actions taken by President Trump, and therefore this announcement may have an impact on future Central Bank policy and interest rates. From a longer-term perspective, we may see implications for economic growth across various regions, however, it is too early to tell at this stage.

 

From an investment standpoint, we continue to focus on the fundamentals, maintaining a long-term mindset, whilst paying attention to valuations. Market volatility can provide investors an opportunity to rethink their portfolios and find some better-valued investments with more attractive returns, however, it’s important to note that while selloffs will produce bargains, investors shouldn’t buy simply because stocks look less overvalued.

 

Investment is always full of uncertainty, and therefore the Bovest solutions are constructed with this in mind. Valuations are key in our decision-making process, whereby our research process identifies return drivers from oversold assets, offering investors a high margin of safety. Against that, we also hold defensive assets that can add ballast to portfolios during periods of turbulence, including high quality government bonds and defensive equities such as consumer staples.

 

Diversification continues to be a strong portfolio strategy in these times of uncertainty.

 

Regards,

 

The Bovest Team

Should you withdraw your Pension and pay off your home?

By Francois Le Clus • May 28, 2025
Should you withdraw your Pension and pay off your home? It's perfectly normal to ask whether you should use your pension to pay off your home when leaving an employer. This decision involves weighing the tax on the withdrawal, the interest saved on your bond, the future growth of your pension fund, and the contributions needed to catch up. Example: Anne is 40 years old with a pension fund worth R3,500,000. She bought a home 10 years ago for R3,000,000 and bonded it over 20 years at an 11% interest rate, with monthly repayments of R30,965. After 10 years, her outstanding bond is R2,258,225. If she withdraws her pension, she’ll receive R2,408,300 after tax—enough to settle the bond and have some cash left over. By paying off the bond early: She saves R1,467,919 in interest. She frees up R30,965 in monthly cash flow. However, if she keeps the money invested, her pension could grow to R37,921,470 by age 65 (assuming 10% annual growth). To match this value after using her pension to pay off the bond, she’d need to invest R28,580 per month for the next 25 years. That’s R2,385 less than her current bond repayment, so she does save monthly—but only for the next 10 years. After that, she’s committed to investing R28,580/month for 25 years to break even.  Not everyone’s calculation is the same and there are endless amounts of permutations to this calculation, but it’s important to note that you need to consider all of these factors when making these crucial decisions.

GEWOONTES VIR GELUKKIGE AFTREDE

By Riaan Botha • May 28, 2025
Ons ontleed watter gewoontes meewerk om ’n gelukkige aftrede te verseker. Hierdie maand bespreek ons hoe om gesond te lewe tydens aftrede. Mediese kostes verhoog hoe ouer ons word. Die koste van ’n mediese fonds verhoog jaarliks met meer as die inflasiekoers en mediese uitgawes sal in die toekoms ’n al groter persentasie van ons persoonlike uitgawes vereis. Dit is daarom belangrik om so gesond as moontlik te leef. Hier is verskillende stappe wat gevolg kan word om gesond oud te word: Eet gesond. Moenie oorgewig wees nie. Word sterker deur oefeninge te doen wat jou spiermassa behou. Doen jaarliks mediese ondersoeke om te bepaal hoe gesond jy is. Beskerm jou gewrigte en beenstruktuur deur krag- en rek-oefeninge te doen. Verminder rook en alkohol-inname om jou kanse van kanker en ander siektes te beperk. Indien jy ’n familie-geskiedenis het van siektes soos kanker en hart-toestande. moet jy vir gereelde mediese toetse gaan om vroegtydig te bepaal of jy nie die siektes onder lede het nie. Verbeter jou liggaamsbalans deur oefeninge te doen soos om op een been te staan terwyl jy jou tande borsel. Hierdeur verseker jy dat jy nie gereeld jou liggaamsbalans verloor en val nie. Studies het bewys dat dit help om jou fisieke en geestelike gesondheid te behou deur sewe tot agt ure per nag te slaap. Hou jou brein-funksie of kognitiewe vermoë in ’n goeie toestand deur brein-oefeninge te doen, soos om nuwe stokperdjies te beoefen of memoriseringsoefeninge te doen. Volg ’n aktiewe sosiale lewe. Studies het getoon dat mense met ’n aktiewe sosiale lewe minder geheue-probleme ontwikkel. Hulle het ’n verminderde kans om eensaam te voel en depressief te word (Health Connection, Cooper, University Health Care, 9 September 2024).