Six Key Themes for 2025
Ruvan J Grobler • January 13, 2025
This year promises to be another wild one. These talking points are all driven by external factors that we as retail investors have no control over, but it's important to consider the effect that they can have on our portfolios. Both positive and negative outcomes will hold opportunities for patient investors.
- Grey Listing: In February 2023 South Africa was placed on the Financial Action Task Force(FATF) grey list for not meeting international standards on prevention of money laundering and terrorist financing. The FATF will conduct an onsite visit in February 2025 to confirm which actions were taken and make its recommendation in June 2025. If we are successfully removed from the grey list, we can expect increased foreign investment into the South African economy.
- SA Interest Rates: In 2024 the MPC finally started cutting rates and with the final meeting in November, the MPC reduced interest rates by 25 basis points bringing the prime lending rate to 11.25%. Economists are predicting further 50-75 basis point cuts throughout 2025. I personally believe we have scope for a bit more, but we have seen the MPC to be extremely conservative.
- Donald Trump and South Africa: If Donald Trump pushes for US centred policies while renegotiating trade policies, global trade could be disrupted and might negatively affect South African exports. The AGOA agreement is set to expire in September 2025, but we hope to see it be extended again.
- US Dollar Dominance: US Centred policies may cause volatility in global markets which can strengthen the Dollar. Emerging market currencies like the Rand may then weaken. This does however create opportunities for SA investors investing in Dollars.
- Geopolitical Tension: Tensions have been high in recent years with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and recently with the Israel-Palestine conflict. We may however see tensions intensify between the US and China. This will disrupt global exports and put extra strain on China’s ailing economy. In 2024 foreign investors became net sellers of China stocks over these concerns.
- Advancements in Artificial Intelligence(AI): It’s almost impossible to keep up with the new advancements in AI we see every day. As an example, *in December researchers at Stanford John Hopkins taught robots how to do medical procedures on their own. These advancements may keep on fuelling the growth in AI and tech stocks in 2025.
*https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2024/12/22/robots-learn-surgical-tasks/?utm_source=superhuman&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=what-to-expect-at-ces-2025&_bhlid=a0ae4312fd577606199656c699bb259e1b38726c)
Ruvan J Grobler RFP™ (PGDip Financial Planning)
For a long time, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) prohibited money from being transferred directly from local trusts to offshore trusts. You may have had offshore exposure in your local trust through asset swops and other investment vehicles, but if you want to distribute to overseas beneficiaries, you must first withdraw funds from the trust and then transfer to them through the SARB. This recently changed. SARS declared that beginning August 1, 2023, it will evaluate and possibly approve petitions to transfer funds from South African trusts to offshore trusts. This adjustment coincides with the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) recent relaxation of several currency control regulations. While this new alternative provides numerous prospects, there are tight criteria and a thorough application process. If you are an investor or trustee, you must understand these requirements. There is certainly no one-size-fits-all answer, and the drawbacks and benefits should be examined while deciding. Drawbacks: 1. Complex Regulatory Requirements. • Strict compliance required: The procedure is extensive, necessitating meticulous documentation and adherence to both SARS and SARB regulations. • Long approval process: Each application is assessed individually, which can take weeks or even months. 2. Cost • Legal, tax, and accounting assistance can be costly. • Administrative burden: Extensive documentation and regular reporting increase management time and expenses. 3. Tax obligations • The South African trust must pay all relevant taxes (capital gains, dividends, etc.) before distribution, preventing tax deferral to the recipient. Money held in a trust is often taxed at a higher rate than money held in the name of a company or individual. 4. Uncertainty and Evolving Practice • New regulations may impact future distributions and compliance needs. • Disputes: Failure to meet SARS or SARB rules may result in delayed or refused distributions. Benefits: 1. Global Wealth Diversification. Offshore trusts may provide superior asset protection during political or economic volatility in South Africa. 2. Succession and Estate Planning • Multi-Jurisdictional Estate Planning: This allows families with members living in different countries to structure their affairs more efficiently. • Offshore trusts facilitate the transfer of money to beneficiaries outside South Africa, simplifying inheritance processes. 3. Tax preparation • Offshore trusts can optimise worldwide tax positions with proper preparation and professional counsel, but must follow all applicable requirements. 4. Regulatory Clarity • Official Approval: SARS and SARB now provide clear protocols for trustees and investors, eliminating legal risks. The ability to transfer money from a South African trust to an offshore trust is a useful tool for global estate and investment planning. Professional guidance is essential to maximise benefits and avoid pitfalls.
’n Nuwe denke oor ouderdom. ‘n Positiewe benadering oor verouderdom word gevorm as gevolg van die ontwikkeling van tegnologie en die mediese wetenskap. Statistieke wys dat die mens langer neem om te verouder en op ’n hoër ouderdom afsterf. Met veroudering word nuwe perspektiewe oor verhoudings met familie en vriende gevorm. ’n Groter dringendheid bestaan om beplanning uit te voer. Daar is ’n besef dat die tyd aanstap en dat elke oomblik geniet moet word. Die gewoonte om uit te stel en eers later belangrike momente in jou lewe te wil ervaar, verander. Daar is ’n besef dat die liggaam verouder maar dat die innerlike self steeds wil vernuwe. Laasgenoemde kan aangehelp word deur positiewe denke en gewoontes soos om terug te gee aan die plaaslike gemeenskap, om kennis te deel deur om te skryf of om onderrig te gee. Daar kan selfs oorweeg word om ’n nuwe vaardigheid aan te leer. Een van ons kliente wat ’n afgetrede predikant is, het na aftrede begin om klavierlesse te neem terwyl ander persone ’n nuwe plaaslike taal aangeleer het. Mediese kostes Volgens Stats SA se verslag “Profile of older persons in SA” wat in 2023 gepubliseer is, het die gedeelte van die SA bevolking wat ouer as 60 jaar is, verhoog van 7,0% in 1996 tot 9,8% in 2022. Wanneer die bevolking per groep ontleed word, maak die 60 jaar en ouer gedeelte van die betrokke groep die volgende uit: Blankes ongeveer 29%, Indiërs/Asiate 16,5%, Kleurlinge 10,9% en Swartes 7,8%. Hiervan gebruik ongeveer 50% kroniese medisyne, 20% gebruik brille, 10% dra gehoortoestelle en 5% is in rolstoele.Hierdie ondersteunende toestelle is duur en word nie altyd ten volle deur mediese fondse betaal nie. Die verslag noem ook dat meer as 50% van persone ouer as 60 leef in huishoudings wat uitgebreide families huisves. Mediese uitgawes is seker een van die belangrikste items in ’n afgetredene se begroting. Dit is ’n ongelukkige verskynsel dat mediese kostes met ouderdom verhoog. Die koste van ’n mediese fonds verhoog jaarliks met 3% tot 5% meer as die inflasiekoers en sal ’n al groter persentasie van ons persoonlike uitgawes vereis. Om die regte mediese fonds volgens persoonlike mediese kondisies te kies, speel ’n belangrike rol om deurlopende mediese uitgawes te beperk. Gap Cover kan ’n belangrike rol speel wanneer mediese fondsvoordele nie al die werklike mediese uitgawes dek nie. ’n Versekeringsproduk wat sal uitbetaal wanneer een van die gevreesde siekte opgedoen word, kan ook help om onverwagte mediese uitgawes te dek. RIAAN BOTHA
