Six Key Themes for 2025
Ruvan J Grobler • January 13, 2025
This year promises to be another wild one. These talking points are all driven by external factors that we as retail investors have no control over, but it's important to consider the effect that they can have on our portfolios. Both positive and negative outcomes will hold opportunities for patient investors.
- Grey Listing: In February 2023 South Africa was placed on the Financial Action Task Force(FATF) grey list for not meeting international standards on prevention of money laundering and terrorist financing. The FATF will conduct an onsite visit in February 2025 to confirm which actions were taken and make its recommendation in June 2025. If we are successfully removed from the grey list, we can expect increased foreign investment into the South African economy.
- SA Interest Rates: In 2024 the MPC finally started cutting rates and with the final meeting in November, the MPC reduced interest rates by 25 basis points bringing the prime lending rate to 11.25%. Economists are predicting further 50-75 basis point cuts throughout 2025. I personally believe we have scope for a bit more, but we have seen the MPC to be extremely conservative.
- Donald Trump and South Africa: If Donald Trump pushes for US centred policies while renegotiating trade policies, global trade could be disrupted and might negatively affect South African exports. The AGOA agreement is set to expire in September 2025, but we hope to see it be extended again.
- US Dollar Dominance: US Centred policies may cause volatility in global markets which can strengthen the Dollar. Emerging market currencies like the Rand may then weaken. This does however create opportunities for SA investors investing in Dollars.
- Geopolitical Tension: Tensions have been high in recent years with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and recently with the Israel-Palestine conflict. We may however see tensions intensify between the US and China. This will disrupt global exports and put extra strain on China’s ailing economy. In 2024 foreign investors became net sellers of China stocks over these concerns.
- Advancements in Artificial Intelligence(AI): It’s almost impossible to keep up with the new advancements in AI we see every day. As an example, *in December researchers at Stanford John Hopkins taught robots how to do medical procedures on their own. These advancements may keep on fuelling the growth in AI and tech stocks in 2025.
*https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2024/12/22/robots-learn-surgical-tasks/?utm_source=superhuman&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=what-to-expect-at-ces-2025&_bhlid=a0ae4312fd577606199656c699bb259e1b38726c)
Ruvan J Grobler RFP™ (PGDip Financial Planning)
Die uitdrukking “Twee koppe is beter as een” is welbekend en dui daarop dat samewerking voordelig is. Is daar voordele vir lede van ’n familie wanneer hulle gesamentlik familie-finansiële beplanning doen, asook inkomstevoorsiening deur middel van familiebesighede? Familiebesighede in Suid-Afrika, waar gesamentlike finansiële beplanning plaasvind, is ’n belangrike deel van die ekonomie. Talle Afrikaanssprekendes is afkomstig van die platteland waar hulle in ’n familiebesigheidsomgewing op plase grootgeword het. Weens ’n verskeidenheid van redes verander die landbou-familiebesigheidsomgewing, en sommige van hierdie families verskuif hul familiesakebelange met groot sukses na ander sektore van die ekonomie. Entrepreneursvaardighede word egter benodig om vir jouself ’n inkomste te skep. Bovest is behulpsaam om die nodige entrepreneurskundigheid deur middel van die TV-program “Welvaartskeppers” aan die kykerspubliek bekend te stel. Bykomend hiertoe word finansiële advies aan families gegee om sodoende maksimum finansiële voordeel te verkry. Indien die voordele van familie-finansiële beplanning met dié van persoonlike finansiële beplanning vergelyk word, bestaan die volgende voordele: Laer gesamentlike fooie vir familielede kan beding word; Meer effektiewe belastingskale kan benut word deur beleggingskapitaal tussen gades te verdeel; Die oordrag van welvaart na die volgende geslag kan vergemaklik word deur familietrusts te gebruik; Gedeelde verantwoordelikheid bevorder dissipline om by langtermyn-kapitaalbouplanne te hou; Verskillende lewensiklusse en risiko-aptyte help om die familie se beleggingsportefeulje te balanseer; Die verskille in ouderdom en lewensfases ondersteun die uiteenlopende eiendomsbehoeftes van familielede. Aangesien die finansiële beplanning van families meer kompleks is, benodig dit samewerking tussen die verskillende geslagte om behoeftes en verwagtinge te verwesenlik. Die rol van die Bovest-adviseur in hierdie proses kan nie onderskat word nie.
This past weekend, Bovest Wealth Management had the privilege of being part of something truly special: a race, a journey, and a family of runners who took part in the MUT - the Mountain Ultra-Trail - in the breathtaking beauty of George. Together with my close friend Scotty, I ran the marathon. But as is so often the case with endurance events, I walked away with far more than tired legs and a medal. I walked away with lessons. Lessons about faith, finances, discipline, consistency, community, fellowship, and perspective. Ultra trail running has a unique way of stripping life back to the essentials. Out there on the mountain, there are no shortcuts. You cannot fake preparation. You cannot outsource endurance. You cannot buy resilience at the final aid station. You have to show up, step by step, climb by climb, kilometre by kilometre. In many ways, our financial lives are no different. Discipline: The Foundation of the Journey No marathon is completed by accident. It requires discipline long before race day. Early mornings, training runs, strength work, nutrition, rest, and preparation all form part of the unseen investment. Financial success works the same way. Building wealth is rarely about one dramatic decision. It is about the daily discipline of living within your means, saving consistently, avoiding unnecessary debt, planning for tax, protecting your family, and making wise investment choices over time. Proverbs 21:5 reminds us: "The plans of the diligent lead surely to abundance, but everyone who is hasty comes only to poverty." Discipline is not always exciting, but it is deeply powerful. It is the quiet commitment to the right things, even when nobody is watching. On the mountain, discipline gets you to the next checkpoint. In your finances, discipline carries you toward long-term freedom. Community: We Were Not Created to Run Alone One of the most beautiful parts of the MUT weekend was the sense of community. Runners encouraged each other. Families supported from the sidelines. Friends waited, cheered, prayed, laughed, and pushed one another forward. With Scotty alongside me, the journey became lighter. The difficult moments became bearable. The experience became richer. The same is true in our financial lives. We need people around us who encourage wisdom, accountability, and growth. A good financial adviser, tax specialist, fiduciary expert, family member, spouse, mentor, or trusted friend can help us make better decisions and remain focused on the bigger picture. Ecclesiastes 4:9-10 says: "Two are better than one; because they have a good return for their labour. For if they fall, the one will lift up his fellow;..." No one builds a meaningful legacy alone. Wealth is not only about numbers on a statement. It is about people, purpose, stewardship, and responsibility. Perspective: Seeing the Creator Through His Creation Perhaps the greatest takeaway from the weekend was perspective. Running through the beautiful mountains of George, surrounded by the majesty of creation, one cannot help but become aware of the greatness of God. The fresh air, the views, the silence, the strength to continue, and the people alongside us all point to something far bigger than ourselves. There were moments on the route where the mighty Name of the Lord could change the entire atmosphere. A prayer, a word of gratitude, a moment of worship, or simply lifting one's eyes to the mountains reminded me that we are not alone. This perspective is essential in life and in finance. Money is important, but it is not ultimate. Planning is important, but God remains our provider. Wealth can create comfort, but only Christ gives true peace. A well-structured estate can leave an inheritance, but a life of faith leaves a legacy. When we see our finances through the lens of faith, everything changes. We become less anxious, more generous, more intentional, and more aware of the responsibility we carry. The Finish Line Matter Every race has a finish line. So does every financial journey. The question is not whether we will reach a finish line, but whether we are preparing wisely for it. Are we disciplined? Are we consistent? Are we surrounded by the right people? Are we walking in fellowship? Do we have the right perspective? Ultra trail running teaches us that endurance matters. Preparation matters. Community matters. Faith matters. The same is true when building, protecting, and transferring wealth. By Godfried Kotze BCom Accounting, MCom Taxation (UP), SAIPA, FISA Member
