Six Key Themes for 2025
Ruvan J Grobler • January 13, 2025
This year promises to be another wild one. These talking points are all driven by external factors that we as retail investors have no control over, but it's important to consider the effect that they can have on our portfolios. Both positive and negative outcomes will hold opportunities for patient investors.
- Grey Listing: In February 2023 South Africa was placed on the Financial Action Task Force(FATF) grey list for not meeting international standards on prevention of money laundering and terrorist financing. The FATF will conduct an onsite visit in February 2025 to confirm which actions were taken and make its recommendation in June 2025. If we are successfully removed from the grey list, we can expect increased foreign investment into the South African economy.
- SA Interest Rates: In 2024 the MPC finally started cutting rates and with the final meeting in November, the MPC reduced interest rates by 25 basis points bringing the prime lending rate to 11.25%. Economists are predicting further 50-75 basis point cuts throughout 2025. I personally believe we have scope for a bit more, but we have seen the MPC to be extremely conservative.
- Donald Trump and South Africa: If Donald Trump pushes for US centred policies while renegotiating trade policies, global trade could be disrupted and might negatively affect South African exports. The AGOA agreement is set to expire in September 2025, but we hope to see it be extended again.
- US Dollar Dominance: US Centred policies may cause volatility in global markets which can strengthen the Dollar. Emerging market currencies like the Rand may then weaken. This does however create opportunities for SA investors investing in Dollars.
- Geopolitical Tension: Tensions have been high in recent years with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and recently with the Israel-Palestine conflict. We may however see tensions intensify between the US and China. This will disrupt global exports and put extra strain on China’s ailing economy. In 2024 foreign investors became net sellers of China stocks over these concerns.
- Advancements in Artificial Intelligence(AI): It’s almost impossible to keep up with the new advancements in AI we see every day. As an example, *in December researchers at Stanford John Hopkins taught robots how to do medical procedures on their own. These advancements may keep on fuelling the growth in AI and tech stocks in 2025.
*https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2024/12/22/robots-learn-surgical-tasks/?utm_source=superhuman&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=what-to-expect-at-ces-2025&_bhlid=a0ae4312fd577606199656c699bb259e1b38726c)
Ruvan J Grobler RFP™ (PGDip Financial Planning)
South Africa has officially been removed off the Financial Action Task Force's (FATF) grey list as of October 24, 2025. This comes after 33 months of work to strengthen the country's anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism systems. Why Was South Africa Grey Listed in the first place? In February 2023, the FATF placed South Africa on the grey list due to weaknesses in its ability to enforce anti-money laundering regulations. These included ineffective investigations and prosecutions, particularly in severe money laundering and terrorist financing cases. To get off the list, South Africa needed to accomplish 22 action items. By June 2025, the FATF reported that all items had been handled. Although some areas, like as prosecutions, require improvement, this did not prevent the country from being removed from the list. What is the Function of the Financial Intelligence Centre (FIC)? The Financial Intelligence Centre helped South Africa achieve FATF regulations. It enhanced how it oversees businesses and professions that deal with money but are not banks, employing stronger risk assessment tools and compliance measures. The FIC also collaborated extensively with law enforcement, promoting the use of financial intelligence in investigations. This resulted in genuine results, such as the freezing of approximately R157 million in suspected illegal funds and the recovery of nearly R144 million in stolen money. What impact did the listing have on the Economy and Investments? Being on the Grey List increased the cost and complexity of foreign transactions. It also harmed investor confidence, particularly while South Africa holds the G20 presidency in 2025. Financial experts predict that now that the country is no longer on the list, investor sentiment will improve. According to PPS Investments, this may lead to: Improved access to global capital. A stronger Rand. Increased interest in South African stocks A better climate for the local property markets. This change contributes to a more favourable view for South Africa's economy and investment landscape. How do South Africa compares to other countries that was grey listed? South Africa's 33-month stint on the grey list is comparable to other countries. Tanzania required 33 months, Nigeria 25 months, Mozambique 37 months, and Burkina Faso 57 months. What's next? South Africa is already planning for the next FATF mutual evaluation, which is scheduled for 2026-2027. The FIC states that, while leaving the grey list is a significant step forward, the country must continue to improve its mechanisms for combating financial crime.
Have you ever stopped to ask yourself: What will I actually do every day when I retire? It sounds like such a simple question, yet very few people think about it in a practical way. You might have a plan for your finances, but have you thought about your time? Will your days be filled with purpose and activity—or will you find yourself just sitting around, wondering what to do next? From my experience working with retired clients, people tend to go one of two ways: they either become passive or they stay active and engaged. When you first retire, the main concern is usually financial. Will my money last for the rest of my life? But after a few months, that anxiety often fades, and a new question emerges: What is my purpose now? I recently read a remarkable book by Bob Buford called Halftime. Buford was extremely successful financially, but tragedy struck when he lost his son. That loss made him reflect deeply on what truly mattered in life. He realized that while money is important, purpose is what gives life meaning. Buford explains this through the Sigmoid Curve : Curve 1 represents the first part of your life—learning, growing, and mastering your craft. This typically takes you up to around age 50, when you might feel like you’ve reached a plateau or are just coasting toward retirement. Curve 2 is the next chapter—when your focus shifts from inward to outward, from success to significance. This is where you find fulfillment by contributing, giving back, and making a difference in your community. The retirees who thrive the most aren’t the ones who just relax all day. They’re the ones who stay involved, serve others, and wake up each morning with a sense of purpose. A Final Thought The Bible tells us that Abraham had his first child at the age of 100, and his wife Sarah was 90. That story reminds us that no matter your age, there’s still a promise and a purpose over your life. You still have something valuable to give. So as you plan your retirement, don’t just think about your finances—think about your purpose. Don’t be passive. Be active. Be intentional. Live with purpose.
