FAKTORE WAT JOU WELVAART IN 2025 KAN BEïNVLOED
Riaan Botha • January 17, 2025
Aan die begin van elke jaar is dit menslik dat ons wonder of ons welvaartsportefeulje reg gestruktureer is vir die jaar wat voorlê. Kom ons kyk in die kristalbal wat moontlik kan gebeur:
Plaaslik:
- Inflasie in Suid Afrika is onder beheer en daarom kan ons verwag dat die plaaslike rentekoerse sal verlaag. Geskiedenis wys egter dat die rentekoers situasie in die VSA ’n bepalende rol speel in plaaslike rentekoers veranderinge.
- Die stimulasie van die Suid Afrikaanse ekonomie is ’n prioriteit van die Regering van Nasionale Eenheid (RNE) met die doel om werk te kan skep. Gevolglik sal samewerking tussen die privaat sektor en die regering veroorsaak dat JSE gelyste maatskappye groter wins sal maak en gevolglik kan pryse van die aandele van die betrokke maatskappye op die JSE styg. Ekonome verwag ’n 1,7% reële ekonomiese groei vir 2025 in Suid Afrika.
- Die prys/verdienste verhouding van aandele op die JSE wys dat die aandeelpryse in verhouding tot hulle verdienstes goedkoop is en daarom kan verwag word dat maatskappye met bo gemiddelde verdienste se pryse sal styg.
- Effekte/bonds se pryse het na die inwerkingstelling van die RNE aanvanklik bo- gemiddeld gestyg maar later weer sydelings beweeg. In ’n rentekoers dalende siklus styg effekte se pryse gewoonlik en daarom kan ons verwag dat in gunstige ekonomiese toestande die groei op beleggings in effekte sal styg.
Internasionaal:
- Indien die verkiesingsbeloftes van Pres Tump om onder andere invoer tariewe in te stel, geimplimenteer word, sal dit finansiële markte internasionaal raak.
- Die onlangse arbeidsmark statistieke in die VSA toon dat die ekonomie steeds sterk groei. Inflasie vrese kan veroorsaak dat rentekoerse in die VSA langer hoog sal bly.
- Geo -politieke spanninge bring onsekerheid by beleggers omdat hulle gekonfronteer word met die vraag of hulle risiko moet neem of eerder kapitaal moet beskerm?
- Gaan die ekonomiese inisiatiewe van China om hul ekonomie te stimuleer, suksesvol wees en hoe gaan hul ekonomie reageer indien die VSA invoertariewe instel? Die antwoord op hierdie vraag sal ’n invloed uitoefen op aandelepryse in China .
- Gevestigde ekonomië se effekte/bonds se verdienste is laag in verhouding met die van die onwikkelende ekonomië. Indien die effekte in gevestigde ekonomië beter presteer agv dalende rentekoerse, kan hul vir beleggings oorweeg word.
Riaan Botha
15 Januarie 2025
How to invest in a volatile market: 3 Principles to keep in mind ‘In the short term, markets can be very volatile depending on which news story makes headlines. However, over the longer-term investors are always rewarded for staying invested and riding out the waves.’ We know this by now, we have heard it many times before and historical data proves it. Yet it’s easier said than done. When it gets to our own money we are emotionally involved and there is a part of us that believes that this time, it might indeed be different. What if the markets never recover and I suffer permanent capital loss. And with the increase power of AI and social media, it feels like my portfolio hangs on the thread of a single Tweet. In this article Stephen Bernard, an actuarial analyst form our partner Allan Gray share his views, backed by statistics and historical evidence: Read the article here: https://www.allangray.co.za/latest-insights/markets-and-economy/how-to-invest-in-a-volatile-market/
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