Never let a Crisis go to Waste

Ruvan J Grobler • March 31, 2026

In a quiet corner of a garden, a tiny egg rested beneath a leaf, unnoticed by the world. In time, it hatched into a caterpillar—small, vulnerable, and endlessly hungry. Day after day, it consumed everything in its path, growing rapidly but remaining earthbound, exposed to every passing threat.


Then, without warning, it stopped.


It found a still place, attached itself to a branch, and formed a chrysalis. From the outside, it looked lifeless—fragile, even pointless. To an observer, it might have seemed like the end of its journey. But inside, everything was changing. The caterpillar was breaking down completely, dissolving into something unrecognizable before slowly rebuilding itself into something entirely new.


Time passed.


When the chrysalis finally opened, the creature that emerged was no longer confined to the ground. Its wings were soft at first, uncertain. It struggled, pushing fluid through them, strengthening them with effort. Only after this resistance could it take flight.


And when it did, it soared—no longer bound by the limitations of its former life but shaped by every stage that came before.


It’s been six years since humanity’s last global threat, the Covid pandemic. A lot has changed, but we as people have not. Just as the butterfly in the story above goes through its cycle the global economy does too. But the butterfly does not know its going through this cycle, its merely following its path. We are very aware of the cycle as it has an effect on our every day lives especially on our finances. But just as the butterfly follows its path, we do too.

 

Focus on what you can control.

We often stress the issues out of our own control and isn’t exclusive to finances. Not a single person reading this article has any control of the global economy and the current conflict in the Middle East. None of us also knew exactly when it would happen and when it is going to end. Don’t get me wrong, I too struggle to manage my thoughts and emotions when we go through the tough parts.

 

Shifting the focus towards finances; except for being in control of how you earn an income, the only other factor you can control is your spending. Stick to your budget! Never stop investing! Stay disciplined!

 

Crisis Asset Allocation

I get many questions on what we are doing to manage risk and potential losses. This is where financial planning becomes extremely important. Every single investment in your portfolio is linked to a need or a goal, not just any goal but a time-based goal. This specific time horizon has influenced the type of assets bought in order to reach these goals. The longer away the goal, the more risk is taken and vice versa.

 

Investments where liquidity is needed will be affected much less than a long-term share portfolio. More liquidity, less risk. Meaning that if you need cashflow you should not be worried as the asset exposure will be less affected. Retirement products will have exposure to many different assets where there are conservative assets to provide protection in the short-term. The growth asset exposure that may be volatile now is the part that gives you the long-term inflation beating returns.

 

During this part of the cycle certain assets have become less desirable and opportunities have popped up elsewhere. All portfolios are monitored to make sure that the original mandate is followed, and the investment goal is reached at the end of the applicable term.

 

All asset managers have started to make asset allocation changes to match the changing of the cycle and the Bovest investment committee has also done so.

 

Is it time to sell and move to cash?

In short, no. We don’t know when markets will turn and no one else either. Historically in these crises it takes on average around two weeks to reach the bottom of the market and then more than a month to recover. This does create many buying opportunities for asset managers but also for you as investor. Warren Buffet always says, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful". This is the time to buy assets on “sale”, don’t sell them.

 

Getting out of the market is the biggest risk, this is where investors lose money. Stick to the plan and stay patient, you will be rewarded.

 

Ruvan J Grobler RFP™ (PGDip Financial Planning)

AANDELE PRYSE IN SA EN VSA EN DIE OORLOG IN DIE MIDDE-OOSTE

By Dr. Riaan Botha • May 6, 2026
Agtergrond Geopolitieke spanninge het daartoe gelei dat oorlog tussen Amerika/Israel en Iran op 28 Februarie 2026 uitgebreek het. Een van die gevolge van die huidige oorlog is die verminderde olieproduksie en die gevolglike styging in brandstofpryse. Die duurder brandstof raak nie net Suid-Afrikaners se sak wanneer hulle hul motors se tenks vul nie, maar beïnvloed ook die winsgewendheid van Suid-Afrikaanse maatskappye wat op die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs (JSE) genoteer is. Suid-Afrika Suid-Afrika vorm deel van die ontwikkelende ekonomieë wat aanvanklik goed gevaar het gedurende die eerste twee maande van 2026, totdat die oorlog op 28 Februarie uitgebreek het. Gedurende Maart 2026 het die JSE All Share Index met 13% gedaal — die grootste maandelikse daling in 18 jaar. Gedurende April het die indeks egter gestabiliseer, maar dit bly sensitief vir energieprysskokke. Weens die hoër brandstofpryse het Suid-Afrikaanse industriële aandele, kleinhandelaars en eiendomsmaatskappye se aandeelpryse gedaal. Hierdie ondernemings is nou gekoppel aan die plaaslike ekonomie en verbruikersbesteding, wat tans onder druk verkeer. Groot maatskappye met internasionale blootstelling se pryse het ook verswak. Richemont is geraak deur swakker wêreldwye vraag na luukse goedere, terwyl Naspers en Prosus afgetrek is deur swakker prestasie in Chinese tegnologie-aandele. Die Suid-Afrikaanse geldeenheid het ook ’n belangrike rol gespeel. Die rand het versterk tot ongeveer R16 teenoor die Amerikaanse dollar voordat dit effens verswak het. Hoewel dit positief mag klink, verminder ’n sterker rand die waarde van buitelandse verdienste wanneer dit terug na rand omgeskakel word. Aangesien baie van die grootste maatskappye op die JSE hul inkomste oorsee verdien, het dit hul aandeelpryse verder gedemp. Amerika Amerika vorm deel van die ontwikkelde ekonomieë, en hul aandelebeurse is anders deur die oorlog geraak. Suid-Afrikaanse aandele het nie tred gehou met die sterk herstel van die Amerikaanse markte ná die aanvanklike daling in aandeelpryse aan die begin van die oorlog nie. Dit was die gevolg van ’n kombinasie van wêreldwye onsekerheid, die tipe maatskappye wat op elke mark genoteer is, en bewegings in wisselkoerse. Amerikaanse maatskappye, veral in die tegnologiesektor, het voortgegaan om winsgroei te toon, wat beleggers gelok het. In onseker tye neig internasionale beleggers ook om geld na die VSA te verskuif omdat dit as ’n veiliger beleggingsbestemming beskou word. Suid-Afrika, aan die ander kant, het ’n mark wat meer afhanklik is van kommoditeite en wêreldwye ekonomiese siklusse, wat dit meer vatbaar maak vir skokke. Samevatting Daar is ’n gesegde: “Dit is makliker om ’n oorlog te begin as om dit te stop.” Mag diplomate die oorhand kry oor generaals sodat vrede kan terugkeer. Vrede sal olieproduksie verhoog en gevolglik brandstof goedkoper maak. Dit gaan egter tyd neem voordat die huidige hoë brandstofpryse en inflasiedruk verdwyn. In ’n ná-oorlogse situasie kan verwag word dat die JSE weer sterk sal vertoon, mits inflasie onder beheer bly en rentekoerse nie dramaties verhoog word nie. NOTA Ek het in 1983 my meestersgraadverhandeling in Staatsleer aan die Universiteit van die Vrystaat voltooi met die titel: “Islamitiese Determinante in die Wêreldpolitiek.” Dit is kenmerkend dat die rol van olie in die internasionale politiek gedurende 1970’s, weer 50 jaar later herhaal word. Die prys van ’n vat olie het destyds van 1,80 dollar in 1970 na 3 dollar in 1973 en na 31 dollar in 1979 gestyg. Daar was bewindsverandering in Iran toe die Islamietiese Revolusie in 1979 plaasgevind het. Iran, wat deel van OPEC is, het destyds ook olie aangewend om sy Islamitiese doktrine internasionaal te bevorder. In die huidige oorlog word olie steeds deur Iran as ’n geopolitieke wapen gebruik om Amerika en ander olie-verbruikende lande onder druk te plaas. Marksyfers tot einde April 2026

Restructure Your Cash for Better Estate Planning

By Ruvan J Grobler • May 5, 2026
You can build significant wealth and still leave your family with a mess. Not because you didn’t plan—but because your cash wasn’t structured correctly. Too much liquidity in the wrong place, fragmented accounts, or misaligned ownership can quietly undermine even the most carefully drafted estate plan. Without intention, even a well-built estate can become complicated, delayed, or unnecessarily taxed. Estate planning isn’t just about documents and wills. It’s about how your money actually flows—and whether that flow supports or disrupts the legacy you intend to leave. Where do Money Market/Fixed Deposits/Savings Accounts fit into your portfolio? Financial Planning Cashflow These short-term conservatively positioned assets, just like all conventional asset classes, have a specific place in financial planning. It can be aligned with short-term investment goals where liquidity is key and can also form part of emergency savings. It’s important to note that interest earnings are taxed as income and can create unexpected tax liabilities. Risk Aversion Not all investors feel the same about risk, and that’s ok. Some might argue the price of holding cash in the long-term, but the investor has peace of mind that there will never be any surprises when opening investment statements, although it may come at the price of inflation beating growth over the long term. Implications on death by not holding the cash investment in a structure: Tax: The capital will form part of the dutiable estate for purposes of calculating the estate duty payable to SARS. 20% levied on dutiable estate between R3.5 million and R30 million, 25% levied on dutiable estate exceeding R30 million. Executor’s fees: The capital will form part of the calculation of executor’s fees charged by the executor of the estate. 4% (Incl. VAT) is the general fee charged by executors. Liquidity: In normal circumstances, the capital will only be available to beneficiaries once the Master of the High Court has accepted the L&D account and there is sufficient liquidity to make distributions. How do we solve this? It’s important to make sure that if you hold cash investments that it not only follows your financial planning goals, but the structure is considered too. Wrapping the assets in a structure solves two of the above issues, no executor’s fees can be charged if a cash investment moves directly from the deceased to the beneficiary via a nomination, and this process also provides liquidity to beneficiaries significantly faster than if it formed part of the estate for distribution purposes. Some structures may have liquidity constraints before death making it important to consider multiple structures to make sure your financial planning goals can be funded. Another major benefit of a wrapped structure is the deferral of tax liability as the structure will be taxed and not the individual. This income tax liability is taxed at a flat 30% and paid to SARS by the product provider. It may also be a good idea to look at who actually owns the cash investment. Moving it to your business or trust can also come with positive estate planning fundamentals. Reach out to me at ruvan@bovest.co.za to look at estate planning friendly structures for your cash investments. Ruvan J Grobler RFP™ (PGDip Financial Planning)