Never let a Crisis go to Waste
In a quiet corner of a garden, a tiny egg rested beneath a leaf, unnoticed by the world. In time, it hatched into a caterpillar—small, vulnerable, and endlessly hungry. Day after day, it consumed everything in its path, growing rapidly but remaining earthbound, exposed to every passing threat.
Then, without warning, it stopped.
It found a still place, attached itself to a branch, and formed a chrysalis. From the outside, it looked lifeless—fragile, even pointless. To an observer, it might have seemed like the end of its journey. But inside, everything was changing. The caterpillar was breaking down completely, dissolving into something unrecognizable before slowly rebuilding itself into something entirely new.
Time passed.
When the chrysalis finally opened, the creature that emerged was no longer confined to the ground. Its wings were soft at first, uncertain. It struggled, pushing fluid through them, strengthening them with effort. Only after this resistance could it take flight.
And when it did, it soared—no longer bound by the limitations of its former life but shaped by every stage that came before.
It’s been six years since humanity’s last global threat, the Covid pandemic. A lot has changed, but we as people have not. Just as the butterfly in the story above goes through its cycle the global economy does too. But the butterfly does not know its going through this cycle, its merely following its path. We are very aware of the cycle as it has an effect on our every day lives especially on our finances. But just as the butterfly follows its path, we do too.
Focus on what you can control.
We often stress the issues out of our own control and isn’t exclusive to finances. Not a single person reading this article has any control of the global economy and the current conflict in the Middle East. None of us also knew exactly when it would happen and when it is going to end. Don’t get me wrong, I too struggle to manage my thoughts and emotions when we go through the tough parts.
Shifting the focus towards finances; except for being in control of how you earn an income, the only other factor you can control is your spending. Stick to your budget! Never stop investing! Stay disciplined!
Crisis Asset Allocation
I get many questions on what we are doing to manage risk and potential losses. This is where financial planning becomes extremely important. Every single investment in your portfolio is linked to a need or a goal, not just any goal but a time-based goal. This specific time horizon has influenced the type of assets bought in order to reach these goals. The longer away the goal, the more risk is taken and vice versa.
Investments where liquidity is needed will be affected much less than a long-term share portfolio. More liquidity, less risk. Meaning that if you need cashflow you should not be worried as the asset exposure will be less affected. Retirement products will have exposure to many different assets where there are conservative assets to provide protection in the short-term. The growth asset exposure that may be volatile now is the part that gives you the long-term inflation beating returns.
During this part of the cycle certain assets have become less desirable and opportunities have popped up elsewhere. All portfolios are monitored to make sure that the original mandate is followed, and the investment goal is reached at the end of the applicable term.
All asset managers have started to make asset allocation changes to match the changing of the cycle and the Bovest investment committee has also done so.
Is it time to sell and move to cash?
In short, no. We don’t know when markets will turn and no one else either. Historically in these crises it takes on average around two weeks to reach the bottom of the market and then more than a month to recover. This does create many buying opportunities for asset managers but also for you as investor. Warren Buffet always says, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful". This is the time to buy assets on “sale”, don’t sell them.
Getting out of the market is the biggest risk, this is where investors lose money. Stick to the plan and stay patient, you will be rewarded.
Ruvan J Grobler RFP™ (PGDip Financial Planning)
