Who will win the US election?

PJ Botha • November 4, 2024

2024 will be remembered as election year, with more people than ever before casting ballots worldwide.
The US elections on November 5th will be the most significant election.
It is the most significant since it will influence not just the future of the nation but also that of the entire world.

The following topics were covered in one of the fascinating discussions we had at the Ninety One Advisor Forum with Kevin Lings, Stanlib's economist as one of the speakers.

Who is going to win the election?
Although it depends on the poll you use, you can't always trust them because they are somewhat biased towards the reader demographic.
The website fivethirtyeight.com, which aggregates all the data, is a poll of polls.
According to this website the difference between Trump and Harris was as much as 3% in September which shrank to 0.9% on November 4.
Trump's side is gaining ground.
Harris has a slight advantage according to the polls, but momentum is on Trump’s side.

According to the polls, Clinton would have won the Trump vs. Clinton election. The explanation that was later offered was that there were many Trump fans who were also closet backers. 

You will have to support Trump if you are a betting man, and you look at the election odds.
Trump has a 53.3% chance of winning, while Harris has a 46.3% chance, according to electionbettingodds.com.

In the end, the most important question is whether the election outcome will matter.
The answer is a simple “ yes”. Most things will remain the same if Harris prevails, but if Trump wins there will be significant policy changes.
One of Trump's main campaign pledges, raising import tariffs, will have to be fulfilled if he wins.
He pledged that all Chinese imports would be subject to a 60% import tax on most goods and 100% on Chinese-imported electric vehicles. It now become clear why Elon Musk has suddenly become so interested in the campaign.
Increased import taxes of 10–20% will be applied to all other countries commodities and products, which will hurt South African exports.
Another possibility is that SA will be excluded from AGOA trade, which will have a negative impact on our exports. But it only accounts for 2.7% of total exports. The overall BRICS commerce in SA is seven times that of AGOA.
If this tariff hikes occur, how will China react?
They and all other countries will begin to take care of themselves. There will be more buzz surrounding BRICS and a new currency.

If the tariffs are implemented, everything will ultimately become more costly in the USA, which may lead to a second wave of inflation concerns. To counteract this, interest rates in the USA will need to be raised once more.

The US dollar and US stocks will likely rise if Trump wins, while US bonds will likely fall.
His policies, particularly those pertaining to immigration and imports, will benefit the US economy and job opportunities in the near future.
However, given the rising cost of goods and the reactions of other nations, we will have to wait and see whether it doesn't have a detrimental effect on them in the medium to long run.

Whoever wins will have an impact on the rest of the planet.

GEWOONTES VIR GELUKKIGE AFTREDE

By Riaan Botha • July 30, 2025
Inleiding Aftrede is onteenseglik ’n belangrike fase in jou lewe, en waarskynlik die belangrikste. Dit is die samevoeging van voorafgaande fases, soos opleiding en inkomsteskepping, en as persone nie gereed is vir aftrede nie, kan die lewe traumaties wees. Daar bestaan talle onsekerhede tydens aftrede soos die lengte daarvan, gesondheid en beskikbare finansies. Raad aan persone wat beplan om af te tree, is om tydig met die welvaart beplannings proses te begin – hoe gouer hoe beter. Jy benodig persoonlike welvaart doelwitte wat opgevolg moet word met die begeerte om die regte gewoontes aan te leer. Dit word soms vereis dat jy bereid moet wees om van jou gevestigde gewoontes te verander in die soeke na persoonlike geluk. Uit ons interaksie met kliënte wat op aftrede staan of reeds afgetree het, kon ons waarneem dat hierdie benadering prakties en logies is, met positiewe, tasbare gevolge. Hier volg ’n paar gedagtes oor welvaart gewoontes waarvan die leser kennis moet neem. ’n Nuwe denke oor ouderdom. ‘n Positiewe benadering oor verouderdom word gevorm as gevolg van die ontwikkeling van tegnologie en die mediese wetenskap. Statistieke wys dat die mens langer neem om te verouder en op ’n hoër ouderdom afsterf. Met veroudering word nuwe perspektiewe oor verhoudings met familie en vriende gevorm. ’n Groter dringendheid bestaan om beplanning uit te voer. Daar is ’n besef dat die tyd aanstap en dat elke oomblik geniet moet word. Die gewoonte om uit te stel en eers later belangrike momente in jou lewe te wil ervaar, verander. Daar is ’n besef dat die liggaam verouder maar dat die innerlike self steeds wil vernuwe. Laasgenoemde kan aangehelp word deur positiewe denke en gewoontes soos om terug te gee aan die plaaslike gemeenskap, om kennis te deel deur om te skryf of om onderrig te gee. Daar kan selfs oorweeg word om ’n nuwe vaardigheid aan te leer. Een van ons kliente wat ’n afgetrede predikant is, het na aftrede begin om klavierlesse te neem terwyl ander persone ’n nuwe plaaslike taal aangeleer het. Leef Gesond Ons ervaring by Bovest is dat talle persone die regte gesondheids gewoontes aanleer om hoë mediese kostes te beperk. Hier is verskillende gewoontes wat aangeleer kan word: Eet gesond en moenie oorgewig wees nie. Doen gereelde oefeninge soos op te stap. Beskerm jou gewrigte en beenstruktuur deur krag- en rek-oefeninge te doen. Hou jou brein-funksie of kognitiewe vermoë in ’n goeie toestand deur brein-oefeninge soos memorisering te doen. Volg ’n aktiewe sosiale lewe. Studies het getoon dat mense met ’n aktiewe sosiale lewe minder geheue-probleme ontwikkel. (Health Connection, Cooper, University Health Care, 9 September 2024). Samevatting Die persoonlike gewoontes van gelukkige afgetredenes is anders as die van die angstige en getraumatiseerde afgetredenes. Sommige van hierdie gewoontes word oor ’n lang tyd gevorm, terwyl ander makliker aangeleer word.

Retirement Annuities: The Importance of Beneficiary Nominations

By Ruvan J Grobler • July 30, 2025
Your estate plan evolves as you get older and regular revision of beneficiary nominations on appropriate investments structures becomes a key planning tool. A holistic financial plan is the roadmap to executing these essential estate planning decisions. Let’s explore the importance of beneficiary nominations on your retirement annuity, pension-, provident or preservation funds. Estate Planning: Availability of funds: If the beneficiary nomination is valid, the death benefit will flow directly from the insurer to the beneficiary. This process can be much quicker than the process of winding up the estate. The death benefit can be paid to beneficiaries before other distributions from the estate is made. Estate related fees: By nominating valid beneficiaries, there is no capital inclusion in the deceased’s estate for estate duty and executor fees. This makes it an effective planning tool in reducing the size of the estate and related fees. Estate duty (SARS): 20% of the dutiable estate after R3.5mil and 25% after R30mil. Executor’s fees: Maximum of 4.025% (Including VAT) of the deceased estate. Very Important note: Section 37C of the Pension Funds Act regulates the payment of death benefits. The act aims to identify dependants of the deceased and ensure that death benefit payments are made to them. The trustees appointed by the fund must identify these dependants irrespective of who was nominated by the deceased. The trustees have a duty to conduct a thorough investigation to ensure equitable distribution of death benefits and rely on the financial advisor to provide relevant facts. What if no beneficiaries are nominated? The above process will still follow but it could then be possible that a determination is made to pay the death benefit to the deceased’s estate. The capital will then form part of the estate for purposes of estate duty and executor’s fees. This may also be an intentional decision in order to provide cashflow in the estate for estate related costs or debt. There are however better options in planning for estate cashflow needs. The above is not financial advice and serves only as factual information. Make sure these nominations align with your long-term financial goals and estate planning by consulting with your financial advisor. Ruvan J Grobler RFP™ (PGDip Financial Planning)